82nd Academy Awards (for 2009): Predictions and Winners

by HELEN GEIB

edited March 8, 2010 to add the winners (we called best picture/director, we were solid on acting, we failed totally with screenplay, and the Academy threw a curveball again this year with foreign-language picture)

And now for the annual Commentary Track Oscar predictions post! Who will win? Who should win? Nir, Tom, Geoff, and I participated in the making of this post, which will be updated with the winners after the awards show broadcast (coming this Sunday, March 7). Our predictions match in all but one vote in one category so we stand or fall together in the strength of our predictive powers. Our “should win” picks, on the other hand, are all over the map.

Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9 (2d review)
An Education
The Hurt Locker – All WINNER
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Should win: The Hurt Locker – Nir, Geoff, Helen; Inglourious Basterds – Tom

Animated Feature Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up – All WINNER

Should win: Up – Nir, Tom; The Princess and the Frog – Helen

Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart – All WINNER
George Clooney for Up in the Air
Colin Firth for A Single Man
Morgan Freeman for Invictus
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker

Should win: Renner – Geoff, Tom; Bridges – Nir, Helen

Actor in a Supporting Role
Matt Damon for Invictus
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz for The Inglourious Basterds – All WINNER

Should win: Waltz – Nir, Geoff, Tom

Actress in a Leading Role
Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side – Nir, Geoff, Helen WINNER
Helen Mirren for The Last Station
Carey Mulligan for An Education
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia – Tom

Should win: Mulligan – Geoff; Sidibe – Nir, Tom; Streep – Helen

Actress in a Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz for Nine
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air
Mo’Nique for Precious – All WINNER

Should win: Farmiga – Geoff; Mo’Nique – Nir, Tom, Helen

Directing
James Cameron for Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker – All WINNER
Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels for Precious
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air

Should win: Bigelow – All

Foreign Language Film
Ajami
El Secreto de Sus Ojo WINNER
The Milk Sorrow
Un Prophet
The White Ribbon – All

Should win: Un Prophet – Tom; The White Ribbon – Nir

Writing: Adapted Screenplay
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell for District 9
Nick Hornby for An Education
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche for In the Loop
Geoffrey Fletcher for Precious WINNER
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air – All

Should win: Nick Hornby for An Education – Geoff, Helen; Jesse Armstromg et al. for In the Loop – Tom; Reitman and Turner for Up in the Air – Nir

Writing: Original Screenplay
Mark Boal The Hurt Locker WINNER
Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds – All
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman for The Messenger
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for A Serious Man
Bob Peterson and Pete Docter for Up

Should win: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds – Tom; Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker – Geoff, Helen; the Coens for A Serious Man – Nir