80th Academy Awards (for 2007): Predictions and Winners

by HELEN GEIB

edited on February 25 to add the winners

Here are the Commentary Track predictions for who will win (and our picks for who should win) an Oscar tomorrow in the big eight categories: picture; director; actress; actor; supporting actress; supporting actor; original screenplay; and adapted screenplay. We also call out a few of the great films and performances overlooked by the nominations.

Our predictions are nearly unanimous, diverging only in the best supporting actress category. As might be expected from reading our respective top ten films lists, we diverge in most of the categories in our picks for who should win and who was overlooked. Rely on these predictions at your own risk when you fill in your Oscar pool ballot. This post will be updated on Monday with the winners.

Best Picture	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men	x	x	x	x
There Will Be Blood

Who Should Win: No Country (unanimous) 

Overlooked: Once (Rishi); I’m Not There (Helen); Eastern Promises (Geoff)

Best Director	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
Julian Schnabel (Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Jason Reitman (Juno)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)	x	x	x	x
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)

Who Should Win:  Coens (unanimous)

Overlooked: Joe Wright for Atonement (Rishi); Todd Haynes for I’m Not There (Helen); David Croenberg for Eastern Promises (Geoff)

Best Actress	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)	x	x	x
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)				x
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)

Who Should Win: Cotillard (Rishi); Linney (Helen and Geoff) 

Overlooked: Keira Knightly for Atonement (Rishi); Sandra Bullock for Premonition (Helen)

Best Actor	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)	x	x	x	x
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
Viggo Mortenson (Eastern Promises)

Who Should Win: Day-Lewis (Rishi); Mortenson (Helen and Geoff) 

Overlooked: Ulrich Muhe for The Lives of Others (Rishi); Christian Bale for Rescue Dawn, Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt for The Lookout (Helen)

Best Supporting Actress	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)	x
Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)		x	x
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)				x

Who Should Win: Ryan (Rishi); Blanchett (Helen and Geoff) 

Overlooked: Catherine Keener for Into the Wild (Rishi); Charlotte Gainsbourg for I’m Not There (Helen)

Best Supporting Actor	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)	x	x	x	x
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

Who Should Win:  Bardem (Rishi and Geoff); Holbrook (Helen)

Overlooked: Ben Foster for 3:10 to Yuma (Rishi); Sam Rockwell for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Helen); it’s a wash between Tommy Lee Jones/Josh Brolin/Javier Bardem for No Country For Old Men, all of whom were excellent, none of whom were better than the other (Geoff)

Best Original Screenplay	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
Juno	x	x	x	x
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Who Should Win: Savages (unanimous) 

Overlooked: Shane Meadows for This Is England (Rishi); Todd Haynes and Oren Moverman for I’m Not There (Helen); Steven Knight for Eastern Promises (Geoff)

Best Adapted Screenplay	Rishi	Helen	Geoff	Winner
Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men	x	x	x	x
There Will Be Blood

Who Should Win: Diving Bell (Rishi); No Country (Helen and Geoff) 

Overlooked: James Vanderbilt for Zodiac (Rishi); Andrew Dominik for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Helen)